The roll-out of UNAIDS voluntary medical male circumcision programmes in sub-Saharan Africa: Is it working?

Voluntary medical male circumcision (VMMC) has been demonstrated to reduce HIV acquisition by 60% or more.  WHO and UNAIDS have recommended that VMMC form a part of comprehensive HIV prevention programming in regions of high prevalence, such as sub-Saharan Africa.  Mathematical modelling suggests that the achievement of 80% VMMC coverage within 5 years in 14 countries in Eastern and Southern Africa would avert 3.36m new HIV infections. In the light of this the UNAIDS Joint Strategic Action Framework (JSAF) has set out the goal of circumcising 20.2 million men in five years across these countries. The challenges this represents on both the supply and the demand side are comprehensively discussed by STI/Gray & Kigozi.

A recent PLoS – Medicine Collection considers the progress thus far, and through to 2016, of this initiative.  The Collection Review (Sgaier & Njeuhmeli (S&G)) offers a useful survey. The year preceding the JSAF and the first two years of the initiative have seen yearly VMMC of 0.88m, 1.7m, and 2.9m respectively. If we assume current rates of growth, this would give a cumulative total of 17.5m circumcisions by 2016 – about 3m short of the 20.2m target; if we assume no growth, the cumulative total for this period would be 13.7m.  The scale-up of VMMC over the last three years has been impressive. Still, rates of year-on-year growth have fallen from 109% (2011) to 72% (2013).  S&G identify two factors impeding the achievement of the JSAF goal: first, insufficient funding, largely as a result of the failure of international donors to step in alongside the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) (which currently bears 80% of the cost); second, the lack of – or failure to create – sufficient demand for VMMC in the targeted countries, especially amongst the older element (i.e. aged 25+) of the population.

The 13 papers in the collection deal with issues around supply of VMMC – such as maintaining quality of service during scale-up (Jennings & Njeuhmeli; Rech & Bertrand; Rech & Njeuhmeli) and optimizing efficiency in service delivery (Rech & Njeuhmeli;  Mahvu & Bertrand; Perry & Bertrand).  But, more interestingly, they also deal with the problem that S&G identify as one of the two main obstacles to achieving the JSAF goal – that of creation of demand (Macintyre & Bertrand; Ashengo & Njeuhmeli).  This important issue will be covered in my next blog.