{"id":2314,"date":"2025-12-12T07:00:31","date_gmt":"2025-12-12T07:00:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/spcare\/?p=2314"},"modified":"2025-12-11T19:22:10","modified_gmt":"2025-12-11T19:22:10","slug":"the-last-christmas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/spcare\/2025\/12\/12\/the-last-christmas\/","title":{"rendered":"The Last Christmas?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Dr Matthew Dor\u00e9 &#8211; Palliative Care Consultant<\/p>\n<p>Northern Ireland Hospice &amp; Belfast Trust<br \/>\nHon Sec of APM and Co-lead Clin ECHO<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-thumbnail wp-image-1650\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/spcare\/files\/2021\/05\/mattinoffice-150x150.jpeg\" alt=\"Dr Matthew Dor\u00e9\" width=\"150\" height=\"150\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/spcare\/files\/2021\/05\/mattinoffice-150x150.jpeg 150w, https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/spcare\/files\/2021\/05\/mattinoffice-250x250.jpeg 250w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>I am blessed to have my parents and my wife\u2019s parents all coming around for Christmas this year, and in the flurry of Christmas preparation it got me thinking. But, and with a big apology, please give me some morbid latitude as a palliative care doctor to be thinking about ONS mortality data.<\/p>\n<p>If you look at the UK Office for National Statistics (ONS) data (2020-2022), the annual risk of death for a 70-year-old is approximately:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>1.65% for males (probability of death, <em>P<sub>m<\/sub> <\/em>= 0.0165)<\/li>\n<li>1.18% for females (probability of death, <em>P<sub>f<\/sub><\/em> = 0.0118)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>I have both mum and dad and mum-in-law and dad-in-law coming around for Christmas. Thus the probability that each survives the year:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Male: 1 &#8211;\u00a0<em>P<sub>m<\/sub> <\/em>= 0.9835<\/li>\n<li>Female: 1 &#8211; <em>P<sub>f\u00a0 <\/sub><\/em>= 0.9882<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>Probability that all four survive:<\/p>\n<p>(0.9835)<sup>2<\/sup>\u00d7(0.9882)<sup>2<\/sup> = 0.96727225 \u00d7 0.97653924 \u2248 0.9446 (or 94.46%)<\/p>\n<p>Probability that at least one dies and this is the last Christmas with all four:<\/p>\n<p>1 &#8211; 0.9446 = 0.0554 (or\u00a05.54%) This is a 1 in 18 event.<\/p>\n<p>This calculation is not a cause for gloom, but for focus. It is a statistical nudge to fully appreciate the fleeting, precious chaos of this year\u2019s gathering. The gentle arguments over board games, my dad\u2019s dubious jokes, the mum\u2019s steadfast over-catering &#8211; these are not trivialities but precious. They are the stuff of life, set against a clock whose ticking grows incrementally louder with each passing year.<\/p>\n<p>So, this holiday, I prescribe for myself, and would recommend to all who are fortunate enough to have older loved ones around their table, a dose of mindful appreciation. Let the knowledge of life\u2019s finitude be the reason you listen more closely to the familiar story, laugh more freely at the terrible cracker jokes, and hug a little tighter &#8211; yes, even your in-laws.<\/p>\n<p>It is, statistically speaking, the least we can do.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-2315\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/spcare\/files\/2025\/12\/Annual-Risk-of-death-table-e1765480888890-640x636.png\" alt=\"Table showing annual risk of death figures for the UK by decade and sex\" width=\"450\" height=\"447\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/spcare\/files\/2025\/12\/Annual-Risk-of-death-table-e1765480888890-640x636.png 640w, https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/spcare\/files\/2025\/12\/Annual-Risk-of-death-table-e1765480888890-300x298.png 300w, https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/spcare\/files\/2025\/12\/Annual-Risk-of-death-table-e1765480888890-150x150.png 150w, https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/spcare\/files\/2025\/12\/Annual-Risk-of-death-table-e1765480888890.png 741w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 450px) 100vw, 450px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><b>Declaration of interests<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">I have read and understood the BMJ Group policy on declaration of interests and declare the following interests: None.\u00a0<\/span><!--TrendMD v2.4.8--><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Dr Matthew Dor\u00e9 &#8211; Palliative Care Consultant Northern Ireland Hospice &amp; Belfast Trust Hon Sec of APM and Co-lead Clin ECHO I am blessed to have my parents and my wife\u2019s parents all coming around for Christmas this year, and in the flurry of Christmas preparation it got me thinking. But, and with a big [&#8230;]<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"btn btn-secondary understrap-read-more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/spcare\/2025\/12\/12\/the-last-christmas\/\">Read More&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":470,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2314","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/spcare\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2314","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/spcare\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/spcare\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/spcare\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/470"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/spcare\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=2314"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/spcare\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2314\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/spcare\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=2314"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/spcare\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=2314"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/spcare\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=2314"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}