{"id":3760,"date":"2024-01-08T10:00:30","date_gmt":"2024-01-08T09:00:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/medical-humanities\/?p=3760"},"modified":"2024-01-05T11:33:46","modified_gmt":"2024-01-05T10:33:46","slug":"stories-of-the-futures-you-didnt-see-coming-scenario-planning-healthcare-and-the-humanities","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/medical-humanities\/2024\/01\/08\/stories-of-the-futures-you-didnt-see-coming-scenario-planning-healthcare-and-the-humanities\/","title":{"rendered":"Stories of the Futures You Didn\u2019t See Coming: Scenario Planning, Healthcare, and the Humanities"},"content":{"rendered":"

Blog by Matt Finch<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"
By Jay Huang from Pleasanton, USA – Low Fog Sunrise @Golden Gate Bridge<\/a><\/strong>, CC BY 2.0.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Though it\u2019s just a trick of the calendar, as the new year begins our thoughts inevitably turn to the future. Yet we cannot gather data from events that haven\u2019t happened yet, and forecasts drawing on precedent can flounder when situations are unstable.<\/p>\n

Under so-called \u201cTUNA\u201d conditions of turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity, it becomes impossible to say what tomorrow will bring based on experiences and models drawn from the past.1<\/sup><\/a> In these circumstances, the humanities have a special gift to offer decision-makers at all levels.<\/p>\n

Narrative descriptions of contrasting, plausible futures, or \u201cscenarios\u201d in foresight research, can provide the basis for wise decision-making under conditions of uncertainty.2<\/sup><\/a> Building scenarios requires skills closely aligned with history, storytelling, and even poetry.<\/p>\n

Ram\u00edrez and Wilkinson draw on the words of novelist Carlos Fuentes to compare scenarios to literary texts: \u201cWhat then is a novel, other than telling that which cannot be told otherwise? A novel is a verbal search for that which awaits being written.\u201d3<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n

The criterion for good scenario planning is not whether it predicts events correctly or outlines a desired, normative state of affairs. Rather, scenarios strive to be plausible by offering credible challenges to current assumptions about what is going on around us and how situations might unfold.4<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n

Scenarios have been used by a range of healthcare institutions, for a variety of purposes. United European Gastroenterology used scenarios to examine education priorities.5<\/sup><\/a> Students entering medical school in 2014 would be halfway through their careers by 2040, so how well would their education serve them in a range of possible futures? Understanding gastroenterology\u2019s future required exploring changing lifestyles and agrifood systems, as well as medicine and healthcare.<\/p>\n

At the Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN), scenarios produced during the Covid-19 pandemic enabled a diverse group of organizations involved in the fight against infectious disease to come together on the common ground of an unwritten future.[6]<\/sup><\/a> Looking ahead to 2030, they explored challenging contexts in which the nature of international collaboration and the scope of public health emergencies varied widely.<\/p>\n

GOARN Chair Gail Carson also contributed to the European Commission-funded IMAJINE project, whose four scenarios told of worlds in which Europeans experienced new kinds of inequality shaped by climate change, digital technology, and shifting geopolitical dynamics.[7<\/sup><\/a> In her view, \u201cThe hit of the [Covid-19] pandemic showed up all the weaknesses of the system […] Looking at these scenarios can identify systemic weaknesses before we have to endure the next hit; doing that work of identification and early intervention would be an honourable thing to do.\u201d8<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n

Scenarios are strategic tools grounded in the needs of a specific user and purpose9<\/sup><\/a>; they aim to challenge mental models and to help users to re-perceive their context.10<\/sup><\/a> This includes unlearning as much as learning, that is, \u201cletting go or relaxing the rigidities of previously held assumptions and beliefs, rather than forgetting them.\u201d11<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n

Aesthetics plays as much of a role as reasoning does in achieving this goal: \u201cWhat one feels about something […] is the beginning of what one knows.\u201d12<\/sup><\/a> Different projects may require different resources to help users re-perceive their context, whether visual materials, extensive reports, or simply a succinct and evocative expression, as the poet and scenario planner Betty Sue Flowers notes: \u201cIf you can find the right image for a story you need to tell, knowing that leaders are very busy and don\u2019t have time to read academic prose, then those leaders can recreate their own story from that particular image.\u201d13<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n

Scenarios, then, are aesthetic objects with a special purchase on the mindset of decision-makers. They must be constructed with care and rigor, but can be tailored to different users and settings.14<\/sup><\/a> During the Covid-19 pandemic, new forms of scenario planning evolved to suit the needs of users experiencing exceptionally fast-moving uncertainty.15<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n

Most excitingly, scenarios differ from many other forms of narrative in their collaborative nature as well as in their practical application. They embody, in Van der Heijden\u2019s phrase, \u201cthe art of strategic conversation\u201d and serve as spaces for diverse actors to explore uncertainty together.16<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n

As Ram\u00edrez and Wilkinson put it, citing Fuentes again: \u201cThe novel, like the scenario, enables conversational relations between readers and the writer in reading and rereading: \u2018never again should we have only one voice or reading. Imagination is real and its languages multiple.\u2019\u201d17<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n

What better attitude for us to take forward together into the coming year, with all that\u2019s unknown about what awaits?<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Matt Finch<\/strong> is a strategy and foresight researcher and practitioner, an\u00a0Associate Fellow at the Sa\u00efd Business School at the University of Oxford<\/a>,\u00a0and a consultant at\u00a0mechanicaldolphin.com<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

References<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

[1]<\/a> Rafael Ram\u00edrez and Angela Wilkinson, Strategic Reframing: The Oxford Scenario Planning Approach <\/em>(Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2016). https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1093\/acprof:oso\/9780198745693.001.0001<\/a><\/p>\n

[2]<\/a> Matthew J. Spaniol and Nicholas J. Rowland, \u201cDefining Scenario,\u201d Futures & Foresight Science<\/em> 1, no. 1 (March 2019) e3. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1002\/ffo2.3<\/a>; Rafael Ram\u00edrez et al., \u201cWe Need to Talk (More Wisely) about Wisdom: A Set of Conversations about Wisdom, Science, and Futures,\u201d Futures 108 (April 2019): 72-80. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.futures.2019.02.002.<\/p>\n

[3]<\/a> Strategic Reframing <\/em>44-45.<\/p>\n

[4]<\/a> Ricarda Schmidt-Scheele, The Plausibility of Future Scenarios: Conceptualizing an Unexplored Criterion in Scenario Planning<\/em> (New Rockford: Transcript Publishing, 2021).<\/p>\n

[5]<\/a> United European Gastroenterology, Healthcare in Europe: Scenarios and Implications for Digestive and Liver Diseases<\/em>, 2014. https:\/\/ueg.eu\/files\/776\/8c6744c9d42ec2cb9e8885b54ff744d0.pdf<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[6]<\/a> Rafael Ram\u00edrez et al., \u201cStrategizing across Organizations,\u201d MIT Sloan Management Review <\/em>64, no. 3 (Spring 2023): 62-65.<\/p>\n

[7]<\/a> IMAJINE, Scenarios for the Future of European Spatial Justice, 2021, https:\/\/imajine-project.eu\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/10\/IMAJINE-Scenarios-with-expert-responses.pdf<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[8]<\/a> \u201cImajine Scenario Response\u2014Gail Carson, Centre for Tropical Medicine & Global Health, University of Oxford,\u201d IMAJINE (blog interview), June 16, 2022, https:\/\/imajine-project.eu\/2022\/06\/16\/imajine-scenario-response-gail-carson-centre-for-tropical-medicine-global-health-university-of-oxford\/<\/a>.<\/p>\n

[9]<\/a> Strategic Reframing<\/em><\/p>\n

[10]<\/a> Pierre Wack, \u201cScenarios: Shooting the Rapids.\u201d Harvard Business Review<\/em> 63, no. 6 (November 1985): 139-50.<\/p>\n

[11]<\/a> George Burt and Anup K. Nair, \u201cRigidities of Imagination in Scenario Planning: Strategic Foresight through \u2018Unlearning,\u2019\u201d Technological Forecasting and Social Change<\/em> 153 (April 2020): e119927. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.techfore.2020.119927.<\/p>\n

[12]<\/a> Rafael Ram\u00edrez and Jerome Ravetz, \u201cFeral Futures: Zen and Aesthetics,\u201d Futures<\/em> 43, no. 4 (May 2011): 478-87. https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1016\/j.futures.2010.12.005.<\/p>\n

[13]<\/a> Betty Sue Flowers, interview by Matt Finch, Mechanical Dolphin, October 10, 2020, https:\/\/booksadventures.files.wordpress.com\/2020\/10\/betty-sue-flowers-interview-by-matt-finch-final.pdf<\/a><\/p>\n

[14]<\/a> Rafael Ram\u00edrez, Trudi Lang, and Gayle Peterson, \u201cSeven Sure-fire Ways to Do Scenario Planning Badly: A Guide to Poor Practice.\u201d Announcement, Long Range Planning<\/em> (April 1, 2021) https:\/\/www.journals.elsevier.com\/long-range-planning\/announcements\/seven-sure-fire-ways-to-do-scenario<\/a>; Thomas J. Chermack, Using Scenarios: Scenario Planning for Improving Organizations<\/em> (Oakland: Berrett-Koehler, 2022).<\/p>\n

[15]<\/a> Rafael Ram\u00edrez and Trudi Lang, 2020. \u201cDeveloping an Initial Set of Scenarios Frugally in Response to Covid-19,\u201d Oxford Answers<\/em> (blog), Sa\u00efd Business School, Oxford University, April 28, 2020, https:\/\/www.sbs.ox.ac.uk\/oxford-answers\/developing-initial-set-scenarios-frugally-response-covid-19<\/a><\/p>\n

[16]<\/a> Kees van der Heijden, Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation<\/em> (New York: Wiley, 1996).<\/p>\n

[17]<\/a> Strategic Reframing <\/em>45.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Blog by Matt Finch Though it\u2019s just a trick of the calendar, as the new year begins our thoughts inevitably turn to the future. Yet we cannot gather data from events that haven\u2019t happened yet, and forecasts drawing on precedent can flounder when situations are unstable. Under so-called \u201cTUNA\u201d conditions of turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and […]<\/p>\n

Read More…<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":345,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[15070],"tags":[15068],"class_list":["post-3760","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-blog","tag-blog"],"yoast_head":"\nStories of the Futures You Didn\u2019t See Coming: Scenario Planning, Healthcare, and the Humanities - Medical Humanities<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"'Narrative descriptions of contrasting, plausible futures, or \u201cscenarios\u201d in foresight research, can provide the basis for wise decision-making under conditions of uncertainty.'\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/medical-humanities\/?p=3760\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stories of the Futures You Didn\u2019t See Coming: Scenario Planning, Healthcare, and the Humanities - 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