{"id":738,"date":"2009-07-02T10:57:43","date_gmt":"2009-07-02T09:57:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/?p=738"},"modified":"2009-07-23T12:23:54","modified_gmt":"2009-07-23T11:23:54","slug":"tom-nolan-was-h1n1-leaked-from-a-laboratory","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2009\/07\/02\/tom-nolan-was-h1n1-leaked-from-a-laboratory\/","title":{"rendered":"Was H1N1 leaked from a laboratory?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft\" style=\"float: left\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bmj.com\/columns\/icons\/tom_nolan.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"160\" height=\"110\" \/>391 cases of H1N1 were confirmed in the UK yesterday bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 6929. In Argentina, the state of Buenos Aires <a title=\"BBC news website\" href=\"http:\/\/news.bbc.co.uk\/2\/hi\/americas\/8128167.stm\" target=\"_blank\">has declared<\/a> a health emergency, with schools closing for their winter breaks early &#8211; the city&#8217;s mayor has called for families not to &#8220;treat this as extra holidays for the kids&#8221; and more of a &#8220;time for the children to stay at home as much as possible&#8221;. Meanwhile Australia now has <a title=\"external website\" href=\"http:\/\/www.healthemergency.gov.au\/internet\/healthemergency\/publishing.nsf\/Content\/02FA8190C9BD9B01CA2575E2002A77EE\/$File\/H1N1%20Influenza%2012pm%202%20July.pdf)\" target=\"_blank\">4568 confirmed\u00a0 cases (198 more yesterday) and 9 deaths.<!--more--><\/a><\/p>\n<p><strong>Swine flu leak hits the headlines<\/strong><br \/>\nThe <em>Independent <\/em>and the <em>Daily Mail<\/em> are worried that swine flu might be a man-made disaster. The <em>Mail<\/em> <a title=\"Daily Mail comment\" href=\"http:\/\/www.dailymail.co.uk\/news\/article-1196507\/Swine-flu-pandemic-caused-accidental-leak-laboratory.html\" target=\"_blank\">says this<\/a>:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The swine flu pandemic may have been caused by an accidental leak from a laboratory three decades ago, scientists have claimed.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>I knew it! Tell me more&#8230;<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>An investigation into the genetic make-up of flu viruses claims the pandemic may not have occurred, had it not been for the accidental release of the same strain of influenza virus from a research lab in 1977.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Does that mean it&#8217;s been leaking for 32 years?<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>The study in the <em>New England Journal of Medicine<\/em> said: &#8220;Careful study of the genetic origin of the (1977) virus showed that it was closely related to a 1950 strain, but dissimilar to influenza &#8216;A&#8217; (H1N1) strains from both 1947 and 1957.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<blockquote><p>This finding suggested that the 1977 outbreak strain has been preserved since 1950. The re-emergence was probably an accidental release from a laboratory source.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Ok, but what&#8217;s that got to do with the current pandemic? I&#8217;ve read the article (and the one in the <a title=\"Independent article\" href=\"http:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/news\/science\/did-leak-from-a-laboratory-cause-swine-flu-pandemic-1724448.html\" target=\"_blank\"><em>Independent<\/em><\/a> several times now and can&#8217;t find the answer. I&#8217;d better move on though, or I&#8217;ll be accused of having a &#8220;<a title=\"Independent article\" href=\"http:\/\/www.independent.co.uk\/opinion\/commentators\/steve-connor-lofty-medics-should-stick-to-their-day-job-1724485.html\" target=\"_blank\">lofty attitude<\/a>&#8221; towards media health coverage.<\/p>\n<p>The <a title=\"NEJM article\" href=\"http:\/\/content.nejm.org\/cgi\/content\/full\/NEJMra0904322\" target=\"_blank\">NEJM article<\/a> on which this claim is based is well worth a read. It gives a comprehensive and fascinating history of Influenza A (H1N1) viruses. What they really say about the source of the current outbreak is less of a headline grabber, but just as interesting:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Although the immediate genetic event that led to the emergence of the new pandemic threat was a reassortment between two influenza A (H1N1) swine viruses, these two viruses were actually the products of at least four independent avian-to-mammalian cross-species transmissions, with at least four previous reassortments of gene segments among avian, human, and swine-adapted viruses.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>If you prefer your theories more conspiratorial though, <a title=\"doc2doc discussion\" href=\"http:\/\/doc2doc.bmj.com\/forums.html?slPage=showDiscussionPost&amp;slGroupKey=404acdaa-58a0-493b-99f1-c9cfb6253451&amp;slForumPostKey=Cat:privateForum:1c63febc-ec65-49ec-a40b-106933834944@D|9;36|CommGroup404acdaa-58a0-493b-99f1-c9cfb6253451|Discussion:3c653754-ab66-49a7-9160-ae28a5321fd2\" target=\"_blank\">try this<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Tom Nolan<\/strong> is the clinical community editor of doc2doc, the BMJ\u2019s professional networking community.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>391 cases of H1N1 were confirmed in the UK yesterday bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 6929. In Argentina, the state of Buenos Aires has declared a health [&#8230;]<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"btn btn-secondary understrap-read-more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2009\/07\/02\/tom-nolan-was-h1n1-leaked-from-a-laboratory\/\">More&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-738","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Was H1N1 leaked from a laboratory? - The BMJ<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2009\/07\/02\/tom-nolan-was-h1n1-leaked-from-a-laboratory\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Was H1N1 leaked from a laboratory? - The BMJ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"391 cases of H1N1 were confirmed in the UK yesterday bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 6929. 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