{"id":51090,"date":"2021-10-07T09:13:01","date_gmt":"2021-10-07T08:13:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/?p=51090"},"modified":"2021-10-13T09:55:42","modified_gmt":"2021-10-13T08:55:42","slug":"cop26-a-missed-opportunity-for-climate-leadership","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2021\/10\/07\/cop26-a-missed-opportunity-for-climate-leadership\/","title":{"rendered":"COP26: a missed opportunity for climate leadership"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">At the start of August, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/report\/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, systematically summarising the extent of our knowledge of how the climate is changing, the contribution of human activities, as well as the effects on climate change on impact drivers such as heatwaves, precipitation and sea ice, and permafrost loss. The report makes clear that immediate and drastic decarbonisation\u2014with global emissions declining from now onward, and becoming carbon negative by the second part of the century\u2014are required to avoid the worst human and environmental costs of <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/sr15\/chapter\/spm\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">more than 1.5\u00b0C increase in surface temperatures<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> relative to pre-industrial levels.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The UK\u2019s rhetoric in response to these findings was predictably bombastic. While admitting the report made \u201csobering reading,\u201d the UK prime minister Boris Johnson proudly announced that \u201c<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.gov.uk\/government\/news\/uk-calls-for-greater-global-ambition-as-un-finds-world-warming-faster-than-expected\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">the UK is leading the way<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, decarbonising our economy faster than any country in the G20.\u201d In advance of hosting the latest round of negotiations of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Glasgow this November (COP 26) both the PM and COP 26 President Alok Sharma have proudly proclaimed the UK\u2019s \u2018ambition\u2019 in leading global efforts on decarbonisation. The reality, however, is somewhat less flattering.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">It is true that the UK\u2019s commitments to emissions reductions\u2014<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/environment\/2021\/apr\/23\/which-country-has-made-the-biggest-climate-commitment\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">a 68% reduction in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2030, and achieving net-zero by 2050\u2014<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">go further and faster than the targets set by most other industrialised nations. Given the length of time for which the UK also led the world in carbon emissions\u2014such that it <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/ourworldindata.org\/contributed-most-global-co2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">remains one of the highest per-capita sources of cumulative emissions globally\u2014<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">one might hope for nothing less. However, existing policy commitments fail to show how this will be achieved in practice.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The Climate Change Committee\u2019s <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theccc.org.uk\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/06\/Progress-in-reducing-emissions-2021-Report-to-Parliament.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">2021 report to Parliament<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> highlights the true extent of this policy gap. While the government has been keen to embrace techno-fixes like <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/business-56748346?fbclid=IwAR1CmfGwiY0ATwyYEbA64cUt5t9e1ElzTG9b2NuWUZkhnCNfOE8GYrhiVz0\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">electric vehicles<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, and the as-yet largely notional <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/in-depth-qa-how-will-the-uks-hydrogen-strategy-help-achieve-net-zero\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">hydrogen<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> and carbon capture and storage industries, it has \u201c<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/ccc-uk-will-miss-climate-goals-by-huge-margin-without-new-policies\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">largely ignored\u201d the \u201cpolitically difficult\u201d decisions<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> around diet change, transport modal shift, and challenging the political influence of heavily-polluting industries.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The disproportionate power these industries hold is most starkly demonstrated by the government\u2019s continuing willingness to licence, and even finance, new coal, oil, and gas extraction projects despite the fact that <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/nature14016\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">a third of already-listed oil reserves, and half of gas reserves, must not be burnt<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> if we are to keep global heating even within 2\u00b0C relative to pre-industrial levels. The government has failed to rule out the possibility of licensing a new coal mine in Cumbria that would <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.green-alliance.org.uk\/resources\/The_case_against_new_coal_mines_in_the_UK.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">commit to a further 8.4MtCO2e of emissions<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> annually, and is set to greenlight production-level drilling in the Cambo Oil Field near Shetland that would <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.greenpeace.org.uk\/resources\/cambo-press-briefing\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">produce emissions equivalent to running 18 coal-fired power plants for a year<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. The industry continues to be propped up by public funds\u2014whether through tax breaks or the <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/priceofoil.org\/2021\/08\/24\/unused-tools-central-banks\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a31.335bn the oil and gas industry received<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> from the Bank of England\u2019s Covid Corporate Financing Facility.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The dissonance between rhetoric and reality is replicated time and again across climate-relevant policy sectors. Boris Johnson <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/politics\/2021\/jul\/15\/boris-johnson-appears-to-rule-out-sugar-and-salt-tax-to-cut-junk-food-reliance\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">appeared dismissive<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> of some of the headline recommendations of the National Food Strategy report, despite the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/qa-will-englands-national-food-strategy-help-tackle-climate-change\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">food sector accounting for one-fifth to one-third of all UK emissions<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. Transport plans are big on electrification, but have too <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.carbonbrief.org\/in-depth-qa-what-is-the-uks-net-zero-plan-for-transport\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">little to say on reducing traffic volumes and no funding to promote the most sustainable and healthy solutions<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> of public and active transport. Despite the CCC highlighting the need for aggressive demand management in aviation, new infrastructure such as <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.galba.uk\/take-action\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">the Leeds Bradford Airport expansion<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> continues to be approved.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The irony of this failure of ambition is that the tools to support a genuine, just, and sustainable decarbonisation are already available, and would promote human health at the same time as mitigating our intersecting climate and ecological crises. Transitioning UK energy generation entirely to renewables <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/dx.doi.org\/10.1016\/j.oneear.2019.12.003\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">could prevent nearly 14,000 deaths annually<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> by 2030, chiefly through reduced air pollution. Infrastructure and policy to support public transport, walking and cycling over privatised vehicles <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/cycling-could-be-worth-as-much-as-17-billion-to-the-nhs-its-worth-the-investment-39656\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">could save the NHS \u00a317 billion in 20 years<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. Converting existing houses into climate-smart, well-insulated, energy-generating homes would pay for itself in <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/neweconomics.org\/uploads\/files\/Green-stimulus-for-housing_NEF.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">just seven years<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> through reductions in winter cold-related illness and energy savings\u2014not to mention the lives saved.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">With COP 26, the UK had the opportunity to show the climate leadership it had previously promised\u2014and in doing so, realise an <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmj.com\/content\/374\/bmj.n2100\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">unparalleled opportunity for better public health<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. However, with <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">only <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">weeks to go before the negotiations start<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\">and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.co.uk\/news\/uk-politics-58620566\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">the prime minister already back-peddling on climate pledges<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, it is unlikely that the needed leadership will emerge in time.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><b>Alistair Wardrope<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, Academic Neurology Unit, University of Sheffield; Department of Clinical Neurology, Sheffield Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust. <\/span><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><strong>Competing interests<\/strong>: Alistair is a Medact member and receives funding from NIHR.\u00a0<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>At the start of August, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report (AR6), systematically summarising the extent of our knowledge of [&#8230;]<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"btn btn-secondary understrap-read-more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2021\/10\/07\/cop26-a-missed-opportunity-for-climate-leadership\/\">More&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":66,"featured_media":51091,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[266],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-51090","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-change"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - 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