{"id":51074,"date":"2021-10-04T16:11:09","date_gmt":"2021-10-04T15:11:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/?p=51074"},"modified":"2021-10-14T17:58:40","modified_gmt":"2021-10-14T16:58:40","slug":"the-20-cut-to-universal-credit-is-the-wrong-decision-taken-at-the-worst-possible-time","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2021\/10\/04\/the-20-cut-to-universal-credit-is-the-wrong-decision-taken-at-the-worst-possible-time\/","title":{"rendered":"The \u00a320 cut to Universal Credit is the wrong decision, taken at the worst possible time"},"content":{"rendered":"

On Wednesday 6 October<\/span>\u2014<\/span>on the same day that the UK prime minister Boris Johnson delivers his leadership speech to the Conservative Party Conference<\/span>\u2014<\/span>5.5 million households will see the <\/span>biggest overnight cut to social security provision<\/span><\/a> in the history of our welfare state. The \u00a320 cut to Universal Credit has rightly been the source of much campaigning, with a wide and ever growing number of politicians, charities, think tanks and academics calling on the government to reverse the cut. Using the hashtag, <\/span>#keepthelifeline, this campaign effort has mobilised some compelling numbers and analysis: <\/span>500,000 people will be swept into poverty overnight by the cut, of which 200,000 are children<\/span><\/a>. The longer-term impact of the cut will be even greater, with analysis suggesting <\/span>1m additional households will face poverty in 2022 because of the cut, including 500,000 children<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

These figures should make it clear that the \u00a320 cut is bad policymaking in the worst of times. As we enter what looks set to be an incredibly difficult winter due to a perfect storm of inflation, shortages of fuel, and rising energy costs, withdrawing this support from families living on a low-income is best characterised as policymaking that proceeds despite of, rather than because of, the evidence base and wider policy context.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Yet, while statistics and economic modelling of the impact of the \u00a320 cut are vital, what they cannot capture is the visceral fear, uncertainty, and<\/span>, <\/span>often<\/span>\u2014<\/span>terror<\/span>\u2014<\/span>that households about to be affected are experiencing as they wait for the cut to hit. Many of these families simply cannot work out how they will square the circle of getting by with less at a time when the costs of their essential outgoings are rising at an often frightening rate.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Through the <\/span>Covid Realities research programme<\/span><\/a>, we have been working with over 100 parents and carers living on a low-income since the pandemic began, who have been sharing their experiences and developing proposals for change. Parents like Winter, who has long worried about the impact the removal of the \u00a320 will have:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The proposed change [removing \u00a320 uplift] is the difference between paying our bills and not being able to pay some of them. And if one off expenses crop up (like new shoes for kids etc) then you can\u2019t cover it. Any changes to benefits are very stressful. (Winter, England)<\/span><\/p>\n

The cut to Universal Credit was first supposed to take effect in April 2021, with the Government instead approving a six month extension at the last minute. Families have been left in a state of <\/span>endemic insecurity<\/span><\/a>, worried about what will happen, when the cut takes effect. They have already faced two cliff edges of worry, anxiety, and fear, which have made it hard to plan or prepare for the future<\/span>\u2014<\/span>or indeed to have hope that things might get better for them and their children, despite politicians\u2019 repeated promises to \u201cbuild back better\u201d and to \u201clevel up.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n

Lois sets out the impact of this anxiety:\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

I feel a bit desperate to be honest about the UC cut. I feel really worried that we can\u2019t afford to have any peace of mind whilst we navigate a scary winter. I can\u2019t just panic shop like others can because I have no buffer financially\u2026 [This] drop in vital support (we needed it before) just as things are getting more expensive, has crushed me mentally. Taking medication just to stay level. (England)<\/span><\/p>\n

Parents like Lois describe how the \u00a320 cut has been an ever-present fear for families, causing stress and anxiety<\/span> even before it has taken effect.<\/span><\/a> If the fears of parents and carers are realised and the cut does go ahead, these harmful mental health effects are only likely to worsen as families must try and find new ways to get by on less. Poverty and financial insecurity are stressful at the best of times, let alone during a winter as difficult as the one it looks like we might have ahead of us.<\/span><\/p>\n

The cut will likely<\/span> \u201dcause a shockwave of hardship that will leave a long legacy of mental health problems in its wake.\u201d<\/span><\/a> It represents a short-termist approach to policy making that ignores the scope for far reaching negative impacts on mental health, and is ultimately likely to<\/span> widen health inequalities<\/span><\/a>\u2014<\/span>the effects of which could take months or even years to emerge.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n