{"id":48148,"date":"2020-07-24T14:50:03","date_gmt":"2020-07-24T13:50:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/?p=48148"},"modified":"2020-08-03T15:35:48","modified_gmt":"2020-08-03T14:35:48","slug":"jeffrey-aronson-when-i-use-a-word-power","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2020\/07\/24\/jeffrey-aronson-when-i-use-a-word-power\/","title":{"rendered":"Jeffrey Aronson: When I Use a Word . . . Power"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2014\/12\/jeffrey_aronson.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-32935\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2014\/12\/jeffrey_aronson.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"127\" height=\"160\" \/><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2020\/07\/17\/jeffrey-aronson-when-i-use-a-word-movements\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Last week<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> I outlined some basic pharmacokinetic principles that can inform the likelihood that a newly proposed treatment may be effective, given only in vitro evidence. I showed that the highest tissue concentrations of ivermectin that are likely to be achieved after a single standard dose, the usual mode of administration, or even during repeated use of high doses to steady state, would fall a long way short of the in vitro concentrations that are needed to inhibit the SARS-CoV-2 virus, making ivermectin an unlikely candidate for effective treatment. Pharmacodynamic analysis can also be useful in predicting potential efficacy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u201cPharmacodynamics\u201d, like \u201cpharmacokinetics\u201d, comes from two Greek words, in this case \u03d5\u03ac\u03c1\u03bc\u1fb0\u03ba\u03bf\u03bd and <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u03b4\u03cd\u03bd\u1fb0\u03bc\u03b9\u03c2, power or might (Figure 1). <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The earliest uses of the noun \u201cpharmacodynamics\u201d and the adjective \u201cpharmacodynamic\u201d in English are from 1836 and 1846 respectively, over 100 years before the appearance of \u201cpharmacokinetics\u201d in the late 1950s. \u201cPharmakodynamik\u201d had already been used in German in 1823.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2020\/07\/aronson_24july_2020_again.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-full wp-image-48157\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2020\/07\/aronson_24july_2020_again.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1162\" height=\"2062\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2020\/07\/aronson_24july_2020_again.jpg 1162w, https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2020\/07\/aronson_24july_2020_again-169x300.jpg 169w, https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2020\/07\/aronson_24july_2020_again-577x1024.jpg 577w, https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2020\/07\/aronson_24july_2020_again-768x1363.jpg 768w, https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2020\/07\/aronson_24july_2020_again-866x1536.jpg 866w, https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2020\/07\/aronson_24july_2020_again-1154x2048.jpg 1154w, https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2020\/07\/aronson_24july_2020_again-640x1136.jpg 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1162px) 100vw, 1162px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">A pharmacodynamic effect involves an interaction between an extrinsic moiety, the drug, and an intrinsic moiety, which is usually a membrane-bound or intracellular receptor or an enzyme, or in the case of an infection some part of the infecting organism. Dexamethasone, for example, targets an intracellular host receptor; remdesivir targets the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase of the SARS-CoV-2 virus.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The law of mass action <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/26119837\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">dictates<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> that there will be a relation between the concentration of the drug and the effect that it has on its target. This is illustrated in Figure 2.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2020\/07\/aronson_24_july_2020.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone size-full wp-image-48151\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2020\/07\/aronson_24_july_2020.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"699\" height=\"325\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2020\/07\/aronson_24_july_2020.jpg 699w, https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2020\/07\/aronson_24_july_2020-300x139.jpg 300w, https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2020\/07\/aronson_24_july_2020-640x298.jpg 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 699px) 100vw, 699px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><b>Figure 2.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Concentration\u2013effect relationships for a series of alkylated trimethylammonium salts causing contraction in guinea-pig ileum in vitro<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The principle of the dose-response curve, stated in its simplest terms, is that:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">no effect occurs in the absence of a drug;<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">the intensity of the effect increases when increasing concentrations of the drug are introduced;<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">there comes a point at which further increases in concentration produce no further appreciable increase in effect, that effect being regarded as a maximum;<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">in rare cases, increasing the concentration causes a reduction in the effect (hormesis)<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The graph on the left (redrawn from <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/13383117\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Stephenson 1956<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">) shows the concentrations used on a logarithmic scale, with the effects expressed as a percentage of the maximum possible effect, illustrating different potencies, different maximum ef\ufb01cacies, and in one case, the decyl salt, apparent hormesis, but probably an artefact; the graph on the right shows a different method of plotting the data, which linearizes three of the sigmoid curves shown on the left<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">It is possible to pick a potential therapeutic target and study in vitro the effect of a drug that is supposedly active at that target. And dose-responsiveness is an important criterion for predicting in vivo efficacy. However, even when dose-responsiveness is shown, there is no guarantee that the action will be translated into clinical efficacy, particularly if the concentrations required for in vitro effectiveness are higher than can be expected in vivo. Furthermore, the milieu of cells exposed to any drug in vitro will be unlike that of cells in vivo, with differences, for example, in oxygen tension, pH, and cation concentrations. Even when dose-responsiveness has been shown in vitro, expectations of viral inhibition have not translated into clinical efficacy in many cases. Take ivermectin, for example; it <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.04.11.20061804v2.full.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">reportedly<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> has antiviral activity in vitro against dengue fever virus, influenza virus, West Nile virus, and Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus, without good evidence of clinical efficacy.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Ivermectin has been suggested to have as its target a host protein known as importin \u03b1\/\u03b2, which, as its name suggests, imports materials from the cytoplasm into the nucleus. SARS-CoV-2 proteins are synthesized and assembled in the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC7305737\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">cytoplasm<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, and although most remain there, some, such as its ribonucleoprotein, are imported into the nucleus for synthesis and genomic regulation and exported from it. However, the <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/32135219\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">IC<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">50<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> for binding of ivermectin to importin \u03b1\/\u03b2 is 17 micromol\/L. Thus, on both pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic grounds, ivermectin is unlikely to have any therapeutic effect via an action on importins.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Of course, mechanistic reasoning of this sort generates a hypothesis, which even if encouraging needs testing in well designed clinical trials in large numbers of individuals. So what about clinical studies of ivermectin? I know of one retracted study, which has not been archived, one <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.06.06.20124461v2\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">retrospective study<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, and one <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.07.07.20145979v1.full.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">open pilot study<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> in 16 patients with historical controls (a so-called \u201csynthetic controlled arm\u201d). We still await the results of well designed studies in large enough numbers of subjects with covid-19 to justify positive conclusions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2020\/07\/robert_watson_watt.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright wp-image-48152\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2020\/07\/robert_watson_watt.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"172\" height=\"228\" \/><\/a>Our progress so far in finding a treatment for covid-19 accords with a dictum of Sir Robert Alexander Watson-Watt (1892\u20131973), the inventor of radar (picture): \u201cGive them the third best to go on with; the second best comes too late, the best never comes.\u201d This is known as the \u201ccult of the imperfect\u201d. We have so far been rewarded with a third best treatment in the form of remdesivir and a second best treatment in the form of dexamethasone.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Which leaves me to ponder the fact that the earliest uses of the noun \u201cpharmacodynamics\u201d and the adjective \u201cpharmacodynamics\u201d in English are to be found in the homoeopathic literature (Figure 3).<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2020\/07\/aronson_24july_2023.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-48153 alignnone\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2020\/07\/aronson_24july_2023.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"702\" height=\"588\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2020\/07\/aronson_24july_2023.jpg 702w, https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2020\/07\/aronson_24july_2023-300x251.jpg 300w, https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2020\/07\/aronson_24july_2023-640x536.jpg 640w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 702px) 100vw, 702px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><b>Figure 3.<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> The earliest known instance of the word \u201cpharmacodynamics\u201d, from <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">A Practical View of Homoeopathy<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> by Stephen Simpson (1836); the epigraph on the title page is from a pens\u00e9e of Montaigne, in which he discusses Moli\u00e8re\u2019s play <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Le bourgeois gentilhomme<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">: \u201cMoli\u00e8re n\u2019est jamais sorti de la nature; ce n\u2019est sa faute si le vrai n\u2019est pas toujours vraisemblable\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><em><strong>Jeffrey Aronson<\/strong>\u00a0is a clinical pharmacologist, working in the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine in Oxford&#8217;s Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences. He is also president emeritus of the British Pharmacological Society.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: left\"><strong>Competing interests:<\/strong> None declared.<\/p>\n<table>\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"border: 1px solid black\">\n<td style=\"border: 1px solid black\">\n<p style=\"text-align: center\"><b>This week&#8217;s interesting integer: 284<\/b><\/p>\n<p><strong>\u2022 <\/strong><b>284 is<\/b><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0 \u00a0\u25cb<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\">An amicable number, in partnership with 220. If the proper divisors of a number x (i.e. all possible divisors of a number except itself) add up to y and the proper divisors of y add up to x, the two numbers are called amicable. The proper divisors of 284 are 1, 2, 4, 71, and 142, which sum to 220; the proper divisors of 220 are 1, 2, 4, 5, 10, 11, 20, 22, 44, 55, and 110, which sum to 284. 220 and 284 is the smallest pair of amicable numbers; the next largest pair is 1184 and 1210.<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0 \u00a0\u25cb<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\">An arithmetic number, because the average of its divisors is an integer: (1, 2, 4, 71, and 142 + 284)\/6 = 84; the average of its proper divisors is also an integer: (1, 2, 4, 71, and 142)\/5 = 44; I call such numbers doubly arithmetic.<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0 \u00a0\u25cb<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\">A congruent number. Congruent numbers are the areas of right-angled triangles that have rational sides; the sides do not need to be integers but they are rational.<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0 \u00a0\u25cb<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\">An evil number: its base 2 representation has an even number of ones: 100011100<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0 \u00a0\u25cb<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\">A polite number\u2014it is the sum of 8 consecutive integers: 32 + 33 + 34 + 35 + 36 + 37 + 38 + 39 = 284<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><strong>\u2022 <\/strong>Square 284 = 80656; convert that to base 15 = 18d71; add the squares of the digits = 1<sup>2<\/sup> + 8<sup>2<\/sup> + 13<sup>2<\/sup> + 7<sup>2<\/sup> + 1<sup>2<\/sup> = 284<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><strong>\u2022 <\/strong>Find the remainders when you divide 42 by all the numbers from 1 to 42: divide by 1 (the remainder is 0); divide by 2 (the remainder is 0); divide by 3 (the remainder is 0); divide by 4 (the remainder is 2); and so on; now add up all the remainders\u2014the total is 284.<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><strong>\u2022 <\/strong>284 = P<sub>51<\/sub> + 51, since the 51<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">st<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> prime number (P<sub>51<\/sub>) is 233.<\/span><br \/>\n<b><strong>\u2022 <\/strong>Sums<\/b><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0 \u00a0\u25cb<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\">284 is the sum of four squares but no fewer. Lagrange\u2019s four square theorem, which he proved in 1770, states that all integers can be expressed as the sum of four squares. However, although 284 can be so expressed (284 = 1<sup>2<\/sup> + 3<sup>2<\/sup> + 7<sup>2<\/sup> + 15<sup>2<\/sup>), it cannot be expressed as the sum of two or three squares. Not all numbers have this property (cf. Interesting integers <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2020\/02\/28\/jeffrey-aronson-when-i-use-a-word-more-about-anamnesis\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">263<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2020\/04\/24\/jeffrey-aronson-when-i-use-a-word-exponential-finances-increasing-decreasing\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">271<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, and <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2020\/06\/19\/jeffrey-aronson-when-i-use-a-word-withdrawn\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">279<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">).<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0 \u00a0\u25cb<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\">284 is also the sum of 8 consecutive squares: 2<sup>2<\/sup> + 3<sup>2<\/sup> + 4<sup>2<\/sup> + 5<sup>2<\/sup> + 6<sup>2<\/sup> + 7<sup>2<\/sup> + 8<sup>2<\/sup> + 9<sup>2<\/sup><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0 \u00a0\u25cb<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\">284 is also the sum of two consecutive odd numbers (141 + 143)<\/span><br \/>\n<span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0 \u00a0\u25cb<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\">284 is the sum of 7 consecutive non-primes = 36 + 38 + 39 + 40 + 42 + 44 + 45, making it a family number (see Interesting integer <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2020\/07\/10\/jeffrey-aronson-when-i-use-a-word-choosing-treatments-for-covid-19\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">282<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">)<\/span><\/span><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Last week I outlined some basic pharmacokinetic principles that can inform the likelihood that a newly proposed treatment may be effective, given only in vitro evidence. I showed that the [&#8230;]<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"btn btn-secondary understrap-read-more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2020\/07\/24\/jeffrey-aronson-when-i-use-a-word-power\/\">More&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":38359,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5762],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-48148","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-jeff-aronsons-words"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Jeffrey Aronson: When I Use a Word . . . 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