{"id":47285,"date":"2020-04-24T17:55:24","date_gmt":"2020-04-24T16:55:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/?p=47285"},"modified":"2020-04-24T17:55:24","modified_gmt":"2020-04-24T16:55:24","slug":"william-cayley-the-new-normal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2020\/04\/24\/william-cayley-the-new-normal\/","title":{"rendered":"William Cayley: The new normal"},"content":{"rendered":"

It is beginning to sink in that this societal upheaval is not just a temporary \u201ctime out,\u201d writes William Cayley<\/p>\n

\"bill_cayley_2\"<\/a>\u201cSo how are you adjusting to the new normal?\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

I heard some variation of this question countless times over the first days and weeks of the societal shutdown that was implemented in an effort to contain the spread of covid-19. As sports were suspended, schools closed, and businesses shuttered, we collectively mourned the loss of our old \u201cnormal\u201d and contemplated something different.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

At times, I was reminded of the world changing events portrayed in the recent Avengers film saga. In the final moments of the movie <\/span>Infinity War<\/span><\/i><\/a>, the cosmic bad guy <\/span>Thanos<\/span><\/a> snaps his fingers and erases half of all life. The movie <\/span>Endgame<\/span><\/a> then opens with a portrayal of the \u201cnew normal,\u201d where half of humanity is gone\u2014streets and sports arenas are empty and forlorn survivors are left to mourn the past. In late March, I commented in my journal that the roads on my morning commute were \u201cso empty it was as though Thanos really had snapped his fingers!\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Over the past month, the strangeness has just intensified. My clinic is nearly always quiet, shops are closed or are enforcing social distancing and infection control (I had to get my temperature taken to enter the hardware store yesterday!), infection and mortality rates feature heavily in the daily news, and the economic damage from our (entirely appropriate) preventive measures continues to pile up.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

And yet, amid all of these changes, I don\u2019t think we really thought of this as a new \u201cnormal.\u201d Rather, I think most of us thought (or hoped?) that this societal upheaval was just a temporary \u201ctime out.\u201d Surely, we\u2019d take some drastic steps, we\u2019d face some challenges and some genuine social stress and discomfort, but this \u201cnew\u201d state of affairs would not last forever? Surely, we\u2019d reach a point at which we could go back to \u201cthe way it was?\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

I think it is beginning to sink in that this is not so. I wrote in my journal last week that, \u201cwe really are starting to look at a \u2018new normal\u2019 which will not be the rapid response to covid-19 as a new threat, but long term readjustments to managing it as an ongoing threat.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

A new \u201cnormal\u201d is starting to emerge, but it is something clearly new. While it seems that death rates from covid-19 may be <\/span>plateauing<\/span><\/a> in the hardest hit areas of the US, there is so much of the population still potentially at risk that we must plan for likely future \u201cwaves\u201d of infection. It may be that social distancing, limitations on large gatherings, and even restrictions on hospital visitation may be vital for the long term prevention of future covid-19 surges.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Daily work life has been drastically altered. Many are out of work, many are working from home, and our approach to travel and meetings for work has been radically reshaped. Will we resume our previous ways, or will remote meetings become the new standard?<\/span><\/p>\n

Education has moved from taking place in schools and universities, to being almost entirely at home or online. While we accommodated this as a necessary adjustment this spring, it is now becoming more apparent that some (if not all) institutions need to plan for remote education for a much longer duration. Will students return to school and university in the fall as they have in other years? Or will remote education be with us for the foreseeable future?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Retail business has been dramatically affected. Online shopping has boomed, but many local small businesses have either been forced to close, or have had to rapidly adapt to web based shopping and curbside pickup.<\/span><\/p>\n

Not all of the changes we\u2019ve encountered in recent months are bad. There are reports that global pollution is down, families are finding they have more time together, and some changes to retail practices may have simply expedited inevitable changes needed for flourishing in a 21<\/span>st<\/span> century economy.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

It is nearly impossible to quantify comparisons between society changing upheavals. There are valid concerns that the economic devastation due to covid-19 may be <\/span>on par with the Great Depression<\/span><\/a>, yet the scale of loss and change engendered by this crisis seems to pale in comparison to either of the world wars. Nevertheless, no matter how one tries to measure the impact of the covid-19 crisis, it seems clear that the \u201cnormal\u201d at which we will sooner or later arrive, really will be something <\/span>new<\/span><\/i>.<\/span><\/p>\n

The movie <\/span>Endgame<\/span><\/i> goes on to tell the thrilling story of how, through teamwork and sacrifice, the Avengers set things \u201cright\u201d and (more or less) restore life to the way it used to be. It is a happy ending, but the reality is that it is one fit only for the movies.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

No one I am aware of has any infinity stones, nor a time travelling Delorean, or even a Tardis.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Our path to our new normal will not be straightforward, most likely will not be easy, and most certainly will involve a normal that really is a change from before<\/span>\u2014<\/span>it really will be a \u201cnew\u201d normal.<\/span><\/p>\n

And yet, we can hope that the new normal will eventually also involve a happy ending.<\/span><\/p>\n

William E Cayley Jr<\/strong> is a clinical professor at the University of Wisconsin, Department of Family Medicine and Community Health. Twitter @bcayley<\/a><\/em>
\n<\/em><\/p>\n

Competing interests:<\/strong>\u00a0I declare that I have read and understood BMJ policy on declaration of interests and I have no relevant interests to declare.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

It is beginning to sink in that this societal upheaval is not just a temporary \u201ctime out,\u201d writes William Cayley […]<\/p>\n

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