{"id":46935,"date":"2020-03-20T19:05:46","date_gmt":"2020-03-20T18:05:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/?p=46935"},"modified":"2020-03-20T19:17:07","modified_gmt":"2020-03-20T18:17:07","slug":"andy-cowper-covid-19-government-communications-need-to-build-and-sustain-trust","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2020\/03\/20\/andy-cowper-covid-19-government-communications-need-to-build-and-sustain-trust\/","title":{"rendered":"Andy Cowper: Covid-19\u2014government communications need to build and sustain trust"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"standfirst\">The UK government&#8217;s communications on the covid-19 pandemic have been a masterclass in how not to do things, writes Andy Cowper<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2018\/07\/Andy_Cowper.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-42597\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2018\/07\/Andy_Cowper.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"160\" height=\"160\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2018\/07\/Andy_Cowper.jpg 160w, https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/files\/2018\/07\/Andy_Cowper-150x150.jpg 150w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 160px) 100vw, 160px\" \/><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Three word slogans are very much a thing in our recent politics: from &#8220;taking back control&#8221; in the EU referendum, to &#8220;get Brexit done&#8221; in the 2019 general election. Now the covid-19 pandemic brings us &#8220;whatever it takes.&#8221; That is the theme running through the<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\">additional package of economic measures announced by the chancellor of the exchequer Rishi Sunak in the wake of his budget, responding to a pandemic of fear that has joined the respiratory virus.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The spread of fear in the UK is unsurprising. The appalling communications over the past weekend about why the government shifted its position\u2014from its initial, more laissez-faire, acceptance of herd immunity and limited recommendations on individual restrictions, to its current, more proscriptive, approach\u2014have been a masterclass in how not to do things.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Robert Peston, 10 Downing Street\u2019s most favoured national journalist, received<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.itv.com\/news\/2020-03-14\/elderly-to-be-quarantined-for-four-months-in-wartime-style-mobilisation-to-combat-coronavirus\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">an exclusive leak previewing a four month period of quarantining people who are aged over 70<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. This came just two days after the first of the now daily press conferences with the Prime Minister and chief medical and scientific officers. The weekend media did not have a clear explanation for why the government was apparently going to change its strategy so significantly. It was not until Monday that<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\">updated modelling by scientists from Imperial College <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imperial.ac.uk\/media\/imperial-college\/medicine\/sph\/ide\/gida-fellowships\/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf\">was released<\/a> and highlighted as the source of this change of strategy<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Two quotes spring to mind. One is attributed to the economist John Maynard Keynes: \u201cWhen the facts change, sir, I change my mind. And you?\u201d The other is from the economist Paul Samuelson: \u201cWhen my information changes, I alter my conclusions.\u201d\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Whether you prefer Keynes\u2019s facts or Samuelson\u2019s information, there was a reason for the strategy to change. We just got those reasons three days after Number 10 leaked Mr Peston the story of the new strategy. Already, however, the growing concern had been exacerbated by the actions of Health Secretary Matt Hancock and his team in writing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/politics\/2020\/03\/14\/must-do-everything-power-protect-lives\/?WT.mc_id=tmgliveapp_iosshare_At9w8jYPvkKQ\">an opinion-editorial for the <em>Sunday Telegraph<\/em><\/a> on the government\u2019s covid-19 strategy\u2014and publishing it behind the newspaper\u2019s online paywall<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Once this piece was set free from the paywall, Hancock\u2019s argument was unclear in several respects, the most obvious of which was his declaration that \u201cwe have a plan, based on the expertise of world-leading scientists. Herd immunity is not a part of it.\u201d This came after the chief scientific officer had just two days previously<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.itv.com\/news\/2020-03-13\/uk-s-chief-scientific-adviser-tells-itv-news-he-hopes-government-s-approach-to-coronavirus-will-create-herd-immunity\/\">described to national media how<\/a> the government hoped that herd immunity would be created by the initial strategy that had been adopted<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">At the time of writing, some parts of the government are still briefing some of the media that <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SkyNewsBreak\/status\/1240411436918112260\">more restrictions are imminent<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">, while also briefing other parts that there is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/world\/2020\/mar\/19\/zero-prospect-of-london-lockdown-involving-movement-limits-says-no-10\">&#8220;zero chance&#8221; of additional restrictions in London<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. It is as if the right hand did not know what the further right hand was doing, isn&#8217;t it?<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The irony of these incessantly inept communications is clanging, given chief adviser to PM Johnson Dominic Cummings\u2019s<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\">admiration for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theneweuropean.co.uk\/top-stories\/dominic-cummings-on-andrew-sabisky-1-6519480\">&#8220;superforecasters<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The First Rule Of Respiratory Disease Pandemic Club is that people are scared. Fear makes certainty attractive, and clear and coherent communications essential\u2014particularly as the science of this pandemic is clearly not wholly certain, and<\/span> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.prospectmagazine.co.uk\/science-and-technology\/coronavirus-uk-herd-immunity-boris-johnson-government-plan-cure\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">not all the epidemiologists agree<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. Likewise, there are complicating factors that covid-19 can be asymptomatic for the first four days, and the unclear state of reinfection rates.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The government\u2019s communications over covid-19 need to build and sustain trust, and their <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmj.com\/content\/368\/bmj.m919\">track record<\/a> so far is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bmj.com\/content\/368\/bmj.m1053\">deeply discouraging<\/a><\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. This<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ft.com\/content\/77ef206e-676b-11ea-800d-da70cff6e4d3\">thoughtful piece<\/a> by <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Robert Shrimsley from <i>Financial Times <\/i>summarises the key issues neatly<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">As the barest of minimums, there are some obvious communications rules here for the government to remember.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Number 1. Remember that people are scared.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Number 2. If you have to change the policy, say why you\u2019re doing so and publish the data that inform this change immediately.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Number 3. If you can&#8217;t get the basics of communications right, and end up having the evidence for your change of mind dragged out of you, people will lose confidence in you.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Number 4. If you make people lose confidence in you, the likelihood of compliance with the best advice will shrink, and you&#8217;ll get panic buying, refusal to social distance\/self-isolate, etc, and the rest.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Oh, and it really doesn&#8217;t help the government\u2019s case that PM Johnson<\/span> <span style=\"font-weight: 400\">was <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/joepike\/status\/1239828692240662530\">reported to have made a joke<\/a> while on a conference call with engineering businesses whom he was lobbying about building more respirators to refer to the project as &#8220;Operation Last Gasp<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">.&#8221;<\/span><\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Andy Cowper<\/strong> is a freelance journalist and editor of <\/em>Health Policy Insight<em>.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong>Competing interests<\/strong>: None declared.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The UK government&#8217;s communications on the covid-19 pandemic have been a masterclass in how not to do things, writes Andy Cowper [&#8230;]<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"btn btn-secondary understrap-read-more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2020\/03\/20\/andy-cowper-covid-19-government-communications-need-to-build-and-sustain-trust\/\">More&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":46938,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[223],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-46935","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-guest-bloggers"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - 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