{"id":45353,"date":"2019-09-17T16:20:05","date_gmt":"2019-09-17T15:20:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/?p=45353"},"modified":"2019-09-17T16:20:31","modified_gmt":"2019-09-17T15:20:31","slug":"anna-howells-there-is-only-science-eventually","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2019\/09\/17\/anna-howells-there-is-only-science-eventually\/","title":{"rendered":"Anna Howells: There is only science eventually"},"content":{"rendered":"

Anna Howells introduces 2100: A Health Odyssey, the science-fiction writing competition breathing life into the discussion about healthcare, past, present and future. Return to BMJ Opinion over the next week to enjoy the winning entries.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/span><\/p>\n

If there\u2019s one thing on which we all concur, it\u2019s the propensity for group think in the NHS. No one disagrees<\/span>\u2060\u2014<\/span>and that\u2019s a problem. Take the future of health and care. The vision set out in the aspirationally “long”-term plan for the NHS is almost identical to future visions published by think-tanks and Royal Colleges. Not to mention other governmental grand-plans of yesteryear. That\u2019s fine if we\u2019re right, but most likely <\/span>we\u2019re not.<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

What if there was a way to have a completely different conversation about the future? One not dominated by those so immersed in the past that alternative futures become obscured. Over the last two years, a quiet experiment has been running to do just that, bringing a new set of voices into our stale debate. Starting in the UK in 2017 as <\/span>Writing the Future<\/span><\/i><\/a>, before moving to the US as <\/span>2100: A Health Odyssey<\/span><\/i><\/a> last year, science-fiction writers have been asked to give their views of where we\u2019re headed, delivered through short-stories about health and healthcare in 2100. Taken together, the competitions had a prize pot in excess of \u00a330,000, received 377 entries, produced two books of the shortlisted stories, and have been studied far beyond their two originating countries.<\/span><\/p>\n

Having run both projects, including with <\/span>Jefferson Health<\/span><\/a> in the US, we at Kaleidoscope think there\u2019s immense value to be gained from a more diverse and divergent conversation about the future. Why?<\/span><\/p>\n

First, thinking long term can help us invest more wisely and be more realistic about change. For example, the full impact of today\u2019s obese primary school children won\u2019t be felt for decades<\/span>\u2060\u2014<\/span>a sobering thought given obesity currently costs the NHS \u00a34.2 billion a year. The outcomes of the far off tomorrow are being determined right here, right now.<\/span><\/p>\n

Second, 2100 is sooner than you think<\/span>\u2060\u2014<\/span>10% of the UK population in 2100 is already alive. Have a <\/span>child not yet at school? There\u2019s a 3 in 4 chance they\u2019ll still be alive to see the next century. While the doctors of 2100 are yet to be born, at least a quarter of them are likely to work with the students going through medical school today.<\/span><\/p>\n

Third, thinking creatively about the future helps us better understand the present, and science fiction offers a <\/span>unique perspective<\/span><\/a> for the future of healthcare. Common themes cropped up in stories from both sides of the Atlantic: genomics and artificial intelligence unsurprisingly; but also addiction, family relationships, and fear.<\/span><\/p>\n

The winning stories, <\/span>OPSNIZING Dad<\/span><\/a> and <\/span>Bedside Betsy<\/span><\/a>, both contained a common reminder of the importance of human understanding and empathy. In <\/span>OPSNIZING Dad<\/span><\/i>, readers are introduced to technology that can store the consciousness of loved ones, but the real focus is on the relationship between parent and child, the mix of emotions and reactions linked to ageing, and the complexity of shared histories<\/span>\u2060\u2014<\/span>all of which goes beyond the understanding of any technology created. In <\/span>Bedside Betsy<\/span><\/i> the story revolves around a device that has replaced doctor or nurse and patient interactions in hospitals. Throughout the story, the lack of understanding and empathy wreaks havoc on the quality of care provided to the protagonist.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

In these imagined futures, <\/span>face-to-face interaction, treating patients holistically and with empathy and kindness, has largely been wiped out, and is sorely missed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

However, are these factors that are so longed for in the future already being lost? \u201cI\u2019m not a prophet\u201d Margaret Atwood wrote, <\/span>\u201cScience fiction is really about now\u201d<\/span><\/a>.<\/span><\/p>\n

There\u2019s plentiful evidence to suggest that we\u2019re struggling with those human elements today. In a UK-based study focusing on kindness, <\/span>Ipsos MORI<\/span><\/a> reported that less than half of those surveyed experienced kindness when using GP services. While our health services aren\u2019t currently beset by robots, they are inundated with burdensome <\/span>administrative processes<\/span><\/a> which can distract from your care, or those you are caring for. At a broader level, when <\/span>Julia Unwin<\/span><\/a> looked at the importance of kindness in public policy she was met by responses of \u201cthat\u2019s nice but what has it got to do with helping services in dire straits?\u201d or \u201cwe shouldn\u2019t talk about emotions\u201d.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The total entries for the prizes amount to over a million words, representing the largest single act of crowdsourcing about the future of health and care we\u2019re aware of. The challenge it poses to those of us within health is not that any of these visions will necessarily come to pass, but <\/span>if one did<\/span><\/i>, would we be adaptable enough to respond effectively? Would we know what to do if our conventional wisdom turned out to be false?\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

That\u2019s a question we need to answer today, not leave for tomorrow. <\/span>To quote Steven Spielberg, \u201c<\/span>There\u00a0is\u00a0no such thing as science fiction,\u00a0there\u00a0is only\u00a0science\u00a0eventually\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

2100: A Healthy Odyssey, an international science fiction short story competition, asked writers and thinkers around the world to explore how health and health care will impact lives in the U.S. in the year 2100. The competition was run by <\/i>Thomas Jefferson University<\/i><\/a> in partnership with <\/i>Kaleidoscope Health & Care<\/i><\/a>, with prize money endowed by Stephen Klasko and Colleen Wyse.<\/i><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/i><\/b><\/p>\n

Anna Howells<\/i><\/b> is part of <\/span><\/i>Kaleidoscope<\/span><\/i><\/a>, a social enterprise set-up to bring people together to improve health and care.
\n<\/span><\/i>Twitter:<\/b> @alhowells1<\/span><\/a><\/em>
\nCompeting interests: <\/b>None declared<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Anna Howells introduces 2100: A Health Odyssey, the science-fiction writing competition breathing life into the discussion about healthcare, past, present and future. Return to BMJ Opinion over the next week […]<\/p>\n

More…<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":45356,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[223],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-45353","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-guest-bloggers"],"yoast_head":"\nAnna Howells: There is only science eventually - The BMJ<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Anna Howells introduces 2100: A Health Odyssey, the science-fiction writing competition breathing life into the discussion about healthcare, past, present and future.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2019\/09\/17\/anna-howells-there-is-only-science-eventually\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Anna Howells: There is only science eventually - 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