{"id":42998,"date":"2018-09-10T16:44:28","date_gmt":"2018-09-10T15:44:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/?p=42998"},"modified":"2018-09-10T17:16:37","modified_gmt":"2018-09-10T16:16:37","slug":"samira-rhoods-putting-future-signals-into-context-with-scenario-planning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2018\/09\/10\/samira-rhoods-putting-future-signals-into-context-with-scenario-planning\/","title":{"rendered":"Samira Rhoods: Putting future signals into context with scenario planning"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>\u201cIt\u2019s 2037, the fourth industrial revolution has come and gone. The research landscape is highly automated and cloud based. Researchers are required to combine scientific qualifications with advanced programming and policy\/communications expertise. Patients and the public drive the research agenda, and the very nature of disease is disrupted by technology. Scientific societies are highly connected with each other, forming ‘super societies’ with shared infrastructure and data, whilst competing on brand and value-add analytics and services.\u201d<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n

In 2017, BMJ conducted a scenario planning initiative entitled the <\/span>Future of global research<\/span><\/i>. We imagined four plausible, but challenging alternative futures enabling us to explore the wider, global environment in which we operate. We gained a deep understanding of the critical factors driving rapid change in the scholarly communication landscape and wider research ecosystem. The plot described above pools events from each of our narratives.<\/span><\/p>\n

As a values driven organisation, BMJ\u2019s vision is to help create a healthier world. In this spirit we have shared our scenarios<\/a> to encourage conversation across our community. You can view our new introductory video here: <\/span>BMJ scenario planning video<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Through scenario planning we learned how global technology, socio-economic, and geopolitical factors have combined to create a new world that both challenges existing business models and provides abundant new opportunities. Future uncertainties we identified included: the extent and nature of human intervention as roles and processes become data\u2010driven and automated; the impact of protectionism and globalisation on international collaboration and openness; the effects of trends such as distrust in experts and democratisation of the brand on societal structures and norms; and the role of NGOs, national governments and regulation in securing future sustainability.<\/span><\/p>\n

We also pinpointed trends more specific to the research industry, such as increasing collaboration between medical industry, tech organisations and research institutes, and growing interdisciplinarity; the important new role of philanthropists as key research actors; the impact of big data and personalised and predictive medicine on disease influencers; and the propagation of new methods for research evaluation.<\/span><\/p>\n

Our scenarios prompted us to ask ourselves a number of questions, including:<\/span><\/p>\n