{"id":42438,"date":"2018-06-22T16:00:50","date_gmt":"2018-06-22T15:00:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/?p=42438"},"modified":"2019-01-08T10:06:34","modified_gmt":"2019-01-08T09:06:34","slug":"hilda-bastian-a-mediterranean-diet-trials-retraction-and-republication-leaves-a-trail-of-questions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2018\/06\/22\/hilda-bastian-a-mediterranean-diet-trials-retraction-and-republication-leaves-a-trail-of-questions\/","title":{"rendered":"Hilda Bastian: A Mediterranean diet trial\u2019s retraction and republication leaves a trail of questions"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">It started with a paper by John Carlisle in 2017. [1] He analysed baseline data for participants in over 5,000 randomised trials, looking for differences in trial arms that would be improbable if people had been allocated to them randomly. One of the trials he marked as unlikely to be genuinely randomised was the PREDIMED trial\u2014the most influential trial of Mediterranean diets. [2]<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">It turned out the authors did have some explaining to do. Last week, the 2013 report of the trial was retracted from the <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">New England Journal of Medicine<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">. [3] The paper was republished with new analyses. [4] The authors now report that 21% of the participants were either not randomised at all, or that randomisation was suspect. They maintain that their re-analysed study shows the same benefit of Mediterranean diets, albeit with the evidence status somewhat weaker. I\u2019m not convinced.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Not everyone was convinced about the original incarnation either. It was excluded from two relevant Cochrane reviews because of inadequacies in the control group. [5, 6] This bothered reviewers from NICE, as well. They judged that the trial was at \u201cserious\u201d risk of bias for individual cardiovascular disease outcomes, with \u201clow or very low quality\u201d data, and underpowered for mortality. According to them, PREDIMED \u201c<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">was difficult to interpret because the control group was advised to reduce their fat intake and to follow some of the components of the Mediterranean diet\u201d. [7]<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">What\u2019s more, people in the control group only received a leaflet initially, while those in the two Mediterranean diet arms\u2014one receiving free olive oil and the other free nuts\u2014had regular group and individual training sessions. A few years in, though, and the training sessions were open to the control group, too.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">So PREDIMED 2013 had more than its fair share of issues. The trial was stopped early, which left another question mark hanging over it. [8] Unreported protocol changes covered a sizeable chunk of the randomisation problem. When more than one person was recruited from a household, only the first was randomised\u2014subsequent people were assigned to the same diet as the first person. That unreported change accounted for 425 of the 1,588 participants who were not properly randomised. (The rest were from a centre which randomised by clinic, not person, and a centre which didn\u2019t use the randomisation table properly.)<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">More data on the trial\u2019s outcomes could have cleared up some questions. The trial\u2019s primary outcome, called \u201cmajor cardiovascular events\u201d, was a composite endpoint. The three components were myocardial infarction (MI)\u2014which could be \u201cacute, evolving or recent MI\u201d (including a change in biomarkers only which preceded angioplasty or other similar intervention), stroke, and cardiovascular death. Each of these three was a secondary endpoint.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Only one of those component outcomes showed a statistically significant difference\u2014stroke. But it wasn\u2019t significant in all of the analyses, for example, a Kaplan-Meier analysis. We aren\u2019t provided with a detailed breakdown of events, or the secondary endpoints, for the 5,589 randomised participants. There was no protocol provided for the 2018 re-analysis, so we don\u2019t know whether or not analyses were selectively reported.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Where does this leave the evidence for the Mediterranean diet? Although others were convinced that the evidence for health benefits was strong enough, the Cochrane and NICE reviewers were not, even before these revelations about PREDIMED. I\u2019m with them. And if the trials have left a lot of questions in the air, what\u2019s happening outside trials raises even more questions.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">We don\u2019t really even know exactly what \u201cthe Mediterranean diet\u201d should be. It\u2019s different in each trial. We don\u2019t know what it means for the average person, or outside Mediterranean countries. And the PREDIMED trial looked only at older people with risk factors.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">We don\u2019t know how the popularisation of the \u201cMediterranean diet\u201d has played out, either. It\u2019s one thing to study what a diet could potentially do in an experiment with extensive support and training\u2014and another to see what effect advice has out in the wild. It\u2019s not hard to see why a concept that conjures up oil, pasta, pizza, and red wine would be so attractive to many people\u2014or to see what could go wrong! We may have under-estimated the harm that even small amounts of alcohol can do. [11] <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">If there does turn out to be an adverse effect of the Mediterranean diet phenomenon, it could be in the idea that a healthy diet includes regular red wine.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b><i>Hilda Bastian<\/i><\/b><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> is a scientist, cartoonist and blogger.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><i><\/i><b><i>Competing interests<\/i><\/b><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">: None declared.<\/span><\/i><\/p>\n<p><strong>References:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">[1] Carlisle: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1111\/anae.13938\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/full\/10.1111\/anae.13938<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">[2] PREDIMED 2013: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/10.1056\/NEJMoa1200303\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/10.1056\/NEJMoa1200303<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">[3] Retraction notice: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/full\/10.1056\/NEJMc1806491\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/full\/10.1056\/NEJMc1806491<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">[4] PREDIMED 2018: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/full\/10.1056\/NEJMoa1800389\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/full\/10.1056\/NEJMoa1800389<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">[5] Rees et al: <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/cochranelibrary-wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/14651858.CD009825.pub2\/abstract\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">http:\/\/cochranelibrary-wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/14651858.CD009825.pub2\/abstract<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">[6] Hooper et al: <\/span><a href=\"http:\/\/cochranelibrary-wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/14651858.CD011737\/abstract\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">http:\/\/cochranelibrary-wiley.com\/doi\/10.1002\/14651858.CD011737\/abstract<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">[7] NICE: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/books\/NBK248067\/\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/books\/NBK248067\/<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">[8] Bassler: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jama\/article-abstract\/185591\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/jamanetwork.com\/journals\/jama\/article-abstract\/185591<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">[9] PREDIMED design: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/ije\/article\/41\/2\/377\/690923\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/academic.oup.com\/ije\/article\/41\/2\/377\/690923<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">[10] PREDIMED protocol: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/suppl\/10.1056\/NEJMoa1200303\/suppl_file\/nejmoa1200303_protocol.pdf\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/www.nejm.org\/doi\/suppl\/10.1056\/NEJMoa1200303\/suppl_file\/nejmoa1200303_protocol.pdf<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">[11] Wood: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(18)30134-X\/fulltext\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/www.thelancet.com\/journals\/lancet\/article\/PIIS0140-6736(18)30134-X\/fulltext<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It started with a paper by John Carlisle in 2017. [1] He analysed baseline data for participants in over 5,000 randomised trials, looking for differences in trial arms that would [&#8230;]<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"btn btn-secondary understrap-read-more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2018\/06\/22\/hilda-bastian-a-mediterranean-diet-trials-retraction-and-republication-leaves-a-trail-of-questions\/\">More&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":42440,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[18905],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-42438","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-hilda-bastian"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Hilda Bastian: A Mediterranean diet trial\u2019s retraction and republication leaves a trail of questions - The BMJ<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2018\/06\/22\/hilda-bastian-a-mediterranean-diet-trials-retraction-and-republication-leaves-a-trail-of-questions\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Hilda Bastian: A Mediterranean diet trial\u2019s retraction and republication leaves a trail of questions - The BMJ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"It started with a paper by John Carlisle in 2017. 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