{"id":12040,"date":"2011-10-25T10:27:57","date_gmt":"2011-10-25T09:27:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/?p=12040"},"modified":"2011-10-25T10:27:57","modified_gmt":"2011-10-25T09:27:57","slug":"richard-smith-%e2%80%9cend-of-the-world%e2%80%9d-and-the-under-40s","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2011\/10\/25\/richard-smith-%e2%80%9cend-of-the-world%e2%80%9d-and-the-under-40s\/","title":{"rendered":"Richard Smith: \u201cEnd of the world\u201d and the under 40s"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/www.bmj.com\/site\/blog\/icons\/bmjh7648e.jpg\" alt=\"Richard Smith\" width=\"160\" height=\"110\" align=\"left\" \/>The <em>BMJ<\/em> meeting on climate change keeps reverberating through my mind, and the apocalyptic feel of the meeting was deeply unsettling. Is the end of the world nigh? And what does that mean for those under 40?<\/p>\n<p>People have been predicting \u201cthe end of the world\u201d ever since there has been a written historical record, and in my lifetime I have worried about nuclear war and nuclear winter leading to the end of civilization and possibly humanity.<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>I also heard Paul Ehrlich talk in the 70s predicting mass starvation because of the population explosion. Famously\u2014and referred to in this week\u2019s <em>Economist<\/em>\u2014Ehrlich made a bet with economist Julian Simon that the price of five metals\u2014copper, chromium, nickel, tin, and tungsten\u2014would increase over the next decade. This was the Malthusians against the Cornucopians, those who believed that \u201cmarkets would provide.\u201d Simon won easily, encouraging people yet again to dismiss those who see apocalypse coming. But had the debate been taken in 1995 rather than 1980 Ehrlich would have been right\u2014and about many of his other predictions, including rapidly rising food prices.<\/p>\n<p>A month or so ago an American evangelist predicted the end of the world for the second time\u2014and again was wrong, much to the amusement of many. It\u2019s entirely understandable that people no longer hear predictions of the \u201cend of the world.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>So are the apocalyptic predictions of the climate scientists wrong? They are radically different from the predictions of nuclear winter in that we are set on a path that leads inexorably to very serious consequences. We have to change dramatically in order to avoid the consequences. The route from here to disaster, although full of unpredictable detail, is clear. Nuclear winter, in contrast, depended on action not inaction\u2014and, of course, we may still have a nuclear war. Indeed, I find it remarkable that nuclear weapons have been available since 1945 and used only twice in war.<\/p>\n<p>Climate apocalypse will not arrive until late in this century, long after I\u2019ll be dead, but without drastic change it may arrive in the lifetime of those under 40. The point was made at the meeting that neither the right nor the left has an answer to climate change. The right has difficulty in even accepting the idea of climate change and has reluctance to accept restrictions on markets and individuals, while the left is wedded to entitlements that cannot be afforded. It was thus predicted at the meeting that the crucial political division will be between the over 40s, who created the problem with our excessive consumption, and the under 40s who will suffer the consequences.<\/p>\n<p>I think of this prediction as I look at the pictures of the \u201c99%\u201d occupying Wall Street, the <em>indignados<\/em> in Madrid, those camped on the steps of St Paul\u2019s, and the young protesting in dozens of cities across the globe. Are these the people who will lead the change we need? They are currently about protest\u2014towards austerity, unemployment, bankers, governments, capitalism, and the 1% that have flourished while the 99% have lost, Their protests are not about climate change, and they don\u2019t have clear and rational demands.<\/p>\n<p>But on Friday night I watched a preview of the new play <em>13<\/em> at the Royal National Theatre, and it features a young revolutionary who stands on a box in a London of the future and says passionately \u201cWe are told that we can\u2019t change, that the world must be as it is. But we don\u2019t agree. We can change. We can build a different and better world.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Squirming in my seat, I thought of <a href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2011\/10\/21\/richard-smith-climate-change-torturers-nero-and-me\/\">my blog<\/a> that was skeptical of our ability to change enough to avoid serious climate change and confessed my own inability to change. But I love the idea that the young can lead us to a better world.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>Richard Smith<\/strong> was the editor of the <\/em>BMJ<em> until 2004 and is director of the United Health Group&#8217;s chronic disease initiative.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The BMJ meeting on climate change keeps reverberating through my mind, and the apocalyptic feel of the meeting was deeply unsettling. Is the end of the world nigh? And what [&#8230;]<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"btn btn-secondary understrap-read-more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2011\/10\/25\/richard-smith-%e2%80%9cend-of-the-world%e2%80%9d-and-the-under-40s\/\">More&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":38364,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[955],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12040","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-richard-smith"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Richard Smith: \u201cEnd of the world\u201d and the under 40s - The BMJ<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2011\/10\/25\/richard-smith-\u201cend-of-the-world\u201d-and-the-under-40s\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Richard Smith: \u201cEnd of the world\u201d and the under 40s - The BMJ\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The BMJ meeting on climate change keeps reverberating through my mind, and the apocalyptic feel of the meeting was deeply unsettling. 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