{"id":11726,"date":"2025-09-15T06:00:08","date_gmt":"2025-09-15T05:00:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bjsm\/?p=11726"},"modified":"2025-09-13T17:24:22","modified_gmt":"2025-09-13T16:24:22","slug":"how-physical-activity-changes-over-time-may-predict-the-risk-of-early-death","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bjsm\/2025\/09\/15\/how-physical-activity-changes-over-time-may-predict-the-risk-of-early-death\/","title":{"rendered":"How physical activity changes over time may predict the risk of early death"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><b>Key words: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Epidemiology, Health, Physical activity<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Why is this study important?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Physical activity is known to help prevent early death.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">1<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Current guidelines recommend 150-300 weekly minutes of moderate-intensity physical activity, or 75-150 weekly minutes of vigorous-intensity activity, or a combination of both, to achieve health benefits.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">2<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> However, most research on physical activity that supported the development of these recommendations were based studies that assessed physical activity on one-time-point. Evidence has suggested that people\u2019s activity levels can change as they go through different life stages (e.g., from middle to older age) or major life events, like illness or retirement.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">3<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Therefore, studies that rely on a single measurement may fail to capture how changes in physical activity affect health, making their findings less applicable for people with varying activity levels.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">We conducted this study to identify general patterns of physical activity across adulthood and examine how different patterns (or cumulative amount) of physical activity relate to the risk of early death from all cause, cardiovascular disease (CVD), and cancer.<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">4<\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>How did the study go about this?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of 85 observational studies, with sample sizes ranging from 357 to 6,572,984 participants. All the studies measured physical activity in at least two time points, with their associations with death from all causes, cardiovascular disease, or cancer. We identified three main ways to model physical activity over time:<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>Activity trajectory<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> \u2013 illustrated how activity levels change over time<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>Time-varying activity<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> \u2013 measured people\u2019s activity levels repeatedly, and accounted for the variance in analysis\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><b>Average\/cumulative activity<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> \u2013 represented the total amount of activity over time<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">For each of these approaches, we synthesised the associations between physical activity and different causes of death. As the studies measured physical activity in different ways, we converted all activity levels into <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">MET-hours\/week<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> so they could be directly compared across studies. Using this harmonised data, we then synthesised the relationships between different doses of physical activity and the risk of death.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>What did the study find?<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">(1) The relationship between long-term physical activity and the risk of death can vary depending on a person\u2019s activity pattern. Specifically:\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">People who remained consistently active over time had about a 30\u201340% lower risk of death from any cause, while those who became active had about a 20\u201325% lower risk.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">People who decreased their activity levels had much less risk reduction in all-cause death compared to those who were consistently active or became active.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Similar trends were also observed for death from CVD, while the findings were less robust for death from cancer.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">(2) The relationship between long-term physical activity and the risk of all-cause death can vary depending on physical activity levels.\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">For people who were either consistently active or became active, the greatest drop in risk occurred below the recommended weekly amounts. However, activity levels above the recommendation offered only limited extra benefit, especially for those increasing their activity over time.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">People who became inactive might still have a lower risk of death compared to those who were always inactive. But this seemed to depend on how active they were before, and more research is needed.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><b>What are the key take-home points?<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Staying physically active throughout adulthood is associated with a lower risk of death from any cause, including death from heart disease.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">People who are not active in early adulthood but start exercising later may still have significant health benefits.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">It is never too late to start being physically active. Starting at any point in adulthood can lead to a longer and healthier life.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignnone wp-image-11729\" src=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bjsm\/files\/2025\/09\/infographic_v3-1-300x169.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"849\" height=\"478\" srcset=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bjsm\/files\/2025\/09\/infographic_v3-1-300x169.jpg 300w, https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bjsm\/files\/2025\/09\/infographic_v3-1-768x432.jpg 768w, https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bjsm\/files\/2025\/09\/infographic_v3-1-1536x864.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bjsm\/files\/2025\/09\/infographic_v3-1-640x360.jpg 640w, https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bjsm\/files\/2025\/09\/infographic_v3-1.jpg 1920w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 849px) 100vw, 849px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><b>Blog Authors: <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Ruyi Yu, Gregore I Mielke, Stephanie L Duncombe, Hsin-Fang Chung <\/span><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">The University of Queensland, School of Public Health, QLD, Australia<\/span><\/p>\n<p><b>Reference\u00a0\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Garcia L, Pearce M, Abbas A, et al. Non-occupational physical activity and risk of cardiovascular disease, cancer and mortality outcomes: a dose-response meta-analysis of large prospective studies. <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Br J Sports Med<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> 2023;57(15):979-89. doi: 10.1136\/bjsports-2022-105669 [published Online First: 20230228]<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> World Health Organization (WHO). WHO guidelines on physical activity and sedentary behavior 2020 [Available from: <\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/publications\/i\/item\/9789240015128\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">https:\/\/www.who.int\/publications\/i\/item\/9789240015128<\/span><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">.<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Gropper H, John JM, Sudeck G, Thiel A. The impact of life events and transitions on physical activity: A scoping review. <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">PLoS One<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> 2020;15(6):e0234794. doi: 10.1371\/journal.pone.0234794 [published Online First: 20200622]<\/span><\/li>\n<li><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> Yu R, Duncombe SL, Nemoto Y, et al. Physical activity trajectories and accumulation over adulthood and their associations with all-cause and cause-specific mortality: a systematic review and meta-analysis. <\/span><i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\">Br J Sports Med<\/span><\/i><span style=\"font-weight: 400\"> 2025 doi: 10.1136\/bjsports-2024-109122 [published Online First: 20250710]<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><!--TrendMD v2.4.8--><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Key words: Epidemiology, Health, Physical activity Why is this study important? Physical activity is known to help prevent early death.1 Current guidelines recommend 150-300 weekly minutes of moderate-intensity physical activity, or 75-150 weekly minutes of vigorous-intensity activity, or a combination of both, to achieve health benefits.2 However, most research on physical activity that supported the [&#8230;]<\/p>\n<p><a class=\"btn btn-secondary understrap-read-more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bjsm\/2025\/09\/15\/how-physical-activity-changes-over-time-may-predict-the-risk-of-early-death\/\">Read More&#8230;<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":463,"featured_media":11728,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[16068,1807,3014],"class_list":["post-11726","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-featured","tag-physical-activity","tag-systematic-review"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>How physical activity changes over time may predict the risk of early death - BJSM blog - social media&#039;s leading SEM voice<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bjsm\/?p=11726\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"How physical activity changes over time may predict the risk of early death - BJSM blog - social media&#039;s leading SEM voice\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Key words: Epidemiology, Health, Physical activity Why is this study important? Physical activity is known to help prevent early death.1 Current guidelines recommend 150-300 weekly minutes of moderate-intensity physical activity, or 75-150 weekly minutes of vigorous-intensity activity, or a combination of both, to achieve health benefits.2 However, most research on physical activity that supported the [...]Read More...\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bjsm\/?p=11726\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"BJSM blog - social media&#039;s leading SEM voice\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-09-15T05:00:08+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bjsm\/files\/2025\/09\/infographic_v3.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1920\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1080\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"bjsm\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"bjsm\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.bmj.com\\\/bjsm\\\/?p=11726#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.bmj.com\\\/bjsm\\\/?p=11726\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"bjsm\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.bmj.com\\\/bjsm\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/02b7ae2dae6231c8629aa4da74bb9e6b\"},\"headline\":\"How physical activity changes over time may predict the risk of early death\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-09-15T05:00:08+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.bmj.com\\\/bjsm\\\/?p=11726\"},\"wordCount\":748,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.bmj.com\\\/bjsm\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.bmj.com\\\/bjsm\\\/?p=11726#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.bmj.com\\\/bjsm\\\/files\\\/2025\\\/09\\\/infographic_v3.jpg\",\"keywords\":[\"featured\",\"physical activity\",\"systematic review\"],\"articleSection\":[\"General\"],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.bmj.com\\\/bjsm\\\/?p=11726#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.bmj.com\\\/bjsm\\\/?p=11726\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogs.bmj.com\\\/bjsm\\\/?p=11726\",\"name\":\"How physical activity changes over time may predict the risk of early death - 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