The number of swine flu cases fell across the UK again, according to the weekly figures from the Health Protection Agency, although they caution their interpretation. Sir Liam Donaldson, England’s chief medical officer, announced plans to scale back the pandemic flu service now cases are falling. At the moment there are around 1600 call centres. He plans to reduce this to between 200 and 600 from 23rd August, according to the BBC. more…

Why did the operator at the National Pandemic Flu Service give the child Tamiflu? The cynics will say because the algorithm told him to, but the real answer, according to the UK government, is that it’s the safest thing to do to prevent severe infections. New research in the BMJ questions that policy and looks likely to cause confusion among the public and doctors alike. more…

Calm settled over swine flu coverage this week as the northern hemisphere headed into the summer holidays; but much remains uncertain.

Stories tracking the Health Protection Agency’s weekly flu figures fell from the front pages. But based on the agency’s numbers, the press report that cases, consultations, admissions and deaths from swine flu are far lower in the UK this week than last – as predicted for the summer. more…

Measuring the tip of the iceberg
The Health Protection Agency  estimates that there were 110,000 new cases of swine flu in England last week,10,000 more than the week before. But how did they work this out and how accurate is it? more…

A hundred and five thousand people with flu symptoms were prescribed Tamiflu via the new hotline last week. But there are some unintended consequences. Although consultation rates for flu like symptoms are levelling, Pulse magazine reports on a new problem. Now patients are making appointments to see their GP complaining of the side effects of Tamiflu. more…

Talk of swine flu seems to have died down considerably since the launch of the national flu pandemic service in England last week. Despite the lack of news generally, it’s no longer on the front page of every newspaper - perhaps due to the telling off that the media got at the weekend (see Monday’s blog). more…

A pandemic of panic

A “panic pandemic” is worsening the crisis in the UK said health ministers over the weekend. Andy Burnham, the health secretary, told The Observer of the need for people to keep a sense of perspective.

“If people are made unnecessarily anxious, it makes the lives of NHS professionals, who are already under enormous pressure, far more difficult as people become unduly worried.”

His plea was backed up by the president of the Royal College of Paediatrics and Child Health, Professor Terence Stephenson: more…

Last week 100,000 people are estimated to have had swine flu in the UK. 840 are in hospital and 63 are in intensive care according to Chief Medical Officer Sir Liam Donaldson. The number of deaths has climbed to 26, while worldwide 700 are thought to have died.

GP consultation rates rose dramatically last week. The RCGP’s figures show that it doubled from 73.4 to 155.3 consultations per 100,000 people in England and Wales. They will be at epidemic levels when the rate goes above 200. The QSurveillance figure, based on the diagnostic codes used in GP practices, puts the consultation rate above this threshold at 221.4. more…

After Monday’s statement to the House of Commons from Andy Burnham (you can watch all ten hours of the commons session here), the RCGP emailed members to summarise this and other developments.

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Government deliver new advice for pregnant women

A storm erupted over the weekend about the government’s advice to pregnant women on swine flu. It all started with the National Childbirth Trust issuing advice that suggested that women consider delaying conception, as their director Belinda Phipps explains: more…